Sunday Reads #139: 3 new (old) reasons to be thankful.
And one reason to worry.
Hey there!
As one part of the world gives thanks this weekend, no reason the rest of us shouldn't follow suit.
It’s been a rough couple of years. So it’ll help all of us to find something to be grateful for.
Let me contribute a few less common things to be thankful for.
#1: Be grateful the Green Revolution happened. And be grateful it happened when it did.
The 1960s and 70s were a rough time in the developing world. With agricultural yields falling and populations rising, a crisis was imminent. Some countries like India were in crisis already.
Enter Norman Borlaug.
From a new paper, Two Blades of Grass: The Impact of the Green Revolution:
A 10-year delay of the Green Revolution would in 2010 have cost 17% of GDP (gross domestic product) per capita and added 223 million people to the developing-world population.
The cumulative GDP loss over 45 years would have been US$83 trillion, corresponding to approximately one year of current global GDP.
If the Green Revolution had never happened, GDP per capita in the developing world would be half of its current level.
#2: We could have been born anytime in the history (or future) of human life. Be thankful that we were born in this era.
Individual opportunity didn't increase for almost all of human history. And standard of living arguably fell when we invented agriculture.
We live in a golden era of vertical progress.
And this era will be short-lived. This is the Dream Time, as Robin Hanson said.
The far future will likely be one of subsistence and fragmentation, much like the past.
So let’s be thankful we're born in the short window of time with immense opportunity.
Of course, there are plenty of problems to fix. As Our World in Data says:
The world is much better.
The world is awful.
The world could be much better.
But we live in a special time. A dream time.
#3: Be grateful that we have consciousness.
Consciousness / sentience may not be a requirement for intelligent life.
Chimpanzees are smarter than orangutans. But orangutans can recognize themselves in the mirror, chimps cannot (citation needed).
Two of my favorite reads in 2021 (Blindsight and Swarm) explore a radical notion: that consciousness might in fact be a "virus". That it might be a threat to building an advanced civilization.
So let's be happy that we are conscious.
The universe is indescribably beautiful, and it's unremittingly bleak. But life would be pretty boring if we were zombies who couldn't appreciate it, wouldn't it?
As Dynomight says in Underrated reasons to be thankful, be thankful that the "lights are on".
[Let's be thankful] that the hard problem of consciousness exists, i.e. that for whatever reason we have phenomenal experiences rather than being “zombies” which, while it’s dispiriting that this seems inexplicable in terms of any current or possible future physics, it’s cool that the lights are on in the universe.
And last:
Let's be grateful that expressing thanks makes you happy and healthy.
That warm glow is not just fluff. You become mentally stronger and more resilient every time you express thanks.
So thank you, my friends. For this opportunity to write, and to be read.
Interlude: If you missed last week’s post, you can find it here:
Follow-up to my previous post on NFTs.
After my NFT article, several of you sent me questions. Both on email and twitter (follow me here!).
So as promised last week, I'm addressing some of them.
The most common reaction was:
Why do I need NFTs at all?
For example:
➡ Why do I need an NFT to sell digital art? Can't I sell it on Gumroad / Shopify?
➡ Why do I need an NFT to monetize a blog? Can't I do it on Substack?
➡ Why do I need an NFT to give access to a community? Can't I use, you know, passwords??
Why is an NFT (or for that matter, the blockchain) needed at all?
The pushback is fair. Up to a point.
When you want to do any of the above, then current solutions are good enough.
But where NFTs shine is when you have to do ALL of them together.
More specifically, as I mentioned to Sudhanva (full discussion here):
Post Script: Unrelated to NFTs.
You may have heard about ConstitutionDAO, the historic attempt to crowdsource $47M and buy a rare copy of the US Constitution.
You may have also heard about the total chaos that followed after it lost the auction. ‘Buy the Constitution’ Aftermath: Everyone Very Mad, Confused, Losing Lots of Money, Fighting, Crying, Etc. is a good summary.
But did you hear that the ConstitutionDAO token ($PEOPLE) has 20xed in price after the debacle?
Even though it is literally, certifiably, worthless! Even Dogecoin has more real value.
This is simultaneously crazy and amazing to watch.
COVID: Dark clouds on the horizon.
Ending on a somber note.
A new variant of COVID (B.1.1.529 / "Omicron") has emerged, and it's far more virulent than the Delta variant.
Some reasons why we should be very concerned at this link.
The spike protein is the tool a virus uses to enter cells, and the part of it our vaccines are trained to spot.
This variant had 32 mutations in the spike — meaning it would look different to our immune system and behave differently when attacking a body.
As a virologist at Imperial College put it, it was a “horrific spike profile".
The prevailing sentiment before this was that COVID is close to over. And I believed / fervently hoped for that too.
But this new variant, if it's as virulent as we fear, will change everything.
It's early days, but if there's anything Delta has taught us, it's that we should panic NOW. Not after we learn more.
Not all hope is lost, though.
There's a chance that our existing vaccines will protect against the Omicron strain. The fact that it arose in a less-vaccinated part of the world (rather than in a more-vaccinated part) suggests that.
But probability doesn't always equal reality. So let's keep our fingers crossed. Else we will need a fresh vaccine rollout. And you know what means. Vaccine hoarding by rich countries once again. Which caused this situation in the first place (or was at least a major contributor).
Here’s the thing though:
Even if Omicron turns out to be more benign than we expect, it's still bad news!
This variant has 32 mutations on its spike, and is still infectious. This surprised everyone. Most people believed that the virus couldn't mutate too much while remaining infectious.
See the chart below. Omicron is 21K (the red line). See how different its spike protein’s mutations are, versus all the strains so far!
This extent of mutation is bad news. It shows that the space of possible mutations is wider than we believed.
So there's a higher probability of further infectious mutations, with a very different spike profile. Which our immune system might not be able to recognize. 😰
It’s not over yet. Stay safe out there.
PS. This 👇 is not funny 😑.
That’s it for this week.
The pandemic has just taken a potentially dangerous turn. But let’s take a moment to think about things we’re thankful for.
Until next week, stay safe, sane, and healthy.
PS. Would love if you could also share today’s edition on Twitter so more people can see it. Thanks a lot!